twopointouch

Pew Internet & American Life Project has released its second Future of the Internet survey, with experts and pundits broadly agreeing that by 2020:

• A low-cost global network will be thriving and creating new opportunities in a “flattening” world.
• Humans will remain in charge of technology, even as more activity is automated and “smart agents” proliferate. However, a significant 42% of survey respondents were pessimistic about humans’ ability to control the technology in the future. This significant majority agreed that dangers and dependencies will grow beyond our ability to stay in charge of technology. This was one of the major surprises in the survey.
• Virtual reality will be compelling enough to enhance worker productivity and also spawn new addiction problems.

• Tech “refuseniks” will emerge as a cultural group characterized by their choice to live off the network. Some will do this as a benign way to limit information overload, while others will commit acts of violence and terror against technology-inspired change.
• People will wittingly and unwittingly disclose more about themselves, gaining some benefits in the process even as they lose some privacy.
• English will be a universal language of global communications, but other languages will not be displaced. Indeed, many felt other languages such as Mandarin, would grow in prominence.

Om Malik comments that these predictions are surprisingly pessimistic, and I completely agree. Nearly all of the negative issues highlighted in this precis - lack of control, privacy, addiction, luddism - are already very apparent. It seems a bit bleak to suggest that we won’t do anything to address problems that are staring us in the face over the next 14 years.

If you look further into the report, though, its findings become less startling. The respondents were presented with headlines with which they could either agree or disagree. This is a good way to generate headlines, but not a way to explore original thinking. And the 304 experts polled were very much less than unanimous. Only 56%, for example, agreed with the first point on the list, with similar divides throughout.